Track record
The full settled record. Every pick, every tier. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
848 settled bets since Feb 2026
Short window — under six months of settled bets. Treat as directional, not predictive.
An open record
Every pick is timestamped before kick-off. Free picks publish on the site. Paid picks go to subscribers in the dashboard and via Telegram. After settlement, every pick of every tier is counted in the stats and breakdowns below; the most recent are listed individually. Nothing is edited after the event.
18+ only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.
Picks by confidence
| Confidence | Bets | Wins | Win Rate | P&L | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 246 | 110 | 44.7% | +0.21 pts | +3.3% |
| medium | 602 | 277 | 46% | +0.87 pts | +7.9% |
Spectral evaluated 2,431 candidate picks since February 2026. 35% (medium and high tiers) cleared our model-trust checks and went out as picks. The other 65% had positive edge but the model wasn't yet trustworthy enough on those signals: too thin a track record in the league, calibration drifting, or recent results not yet statistically clear. Those fed back into model training without reaching subscribers. The ratio is on a short sample and will move.
Monthly breakdown
| Month | Bets | Wins | Win Rate | P&L | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 20 | 9 | 45% | -0.19 pts | -18% |
| Mar 2026 | 229 | 134 | 58.5% | +1.15 pts | +13.5% |
| Apr 2026 | 390 | 163 | 41.8% | -0.32 pts | -5.3% |
| May 2026 | 209 | 81 | 38.8% | +0.45 pts | +24.1% |
League performance
| League | Bets | Wins | Win Rate | P&L | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 156 | 81 | 51.9% | +0.37 pts | +7.9% |
| Premier League | 174 | 73 | 42% | +0.25 pts | +11.5% |
| Bundesliga | 73 | 33 | 45.2% | +0.19 pts | +13.4% |
| Championship | 96 | 43 | 44.8% | +0.17 pts | +12.9% |
| La Liga | 144 | 65 | 45.1% | +0.16 pts | +5.7% |
| Eredivisie | 51 | 23 | 45.1% | +0.11 pts | +6.9% |
| Ligue 1 | 23 | 11 | 47.8% | +0.06 pts | +11.3% |
| League One | 101 | 49 | 48.5% | -0.00 pts | -0.1% |
| MLS | 15 | 8 | 53.3% | -0.01 pts | -8% |
| Primeira Liga | 4 | 1 | 25% | -0.03 pts | -47.8% |
| League Two | 6 | 0 | 0% | -0.04 pts | -100% |
| Belgian Pro League | 2 | 0 | 0% | -0.08 pts | -100% |
| Scottish Premiership | 3 | 0 | 0% | -0.08 pts | -100% |
Recent picks
Want the full settled record?
Every settled pick across all tiers, with odds, edge, stake, outcome and pre-kickoff timestamp. CSV, no signup.
How we record every pick
Every number above is calculated from settled bets only. This section explains how each pick is recorded, where the odds and results come from, what the public record looks like at Spectral, and how the headline yield and P&L are calculated.
How every pick is recorded
Every pick is timestamped at the moment the model flags it, before kick-off. Free picks publish on the site immediately. Paid picks are delivered to subscribers in the dashboard and via Telegram (Standard and Pro tiers). The bet, odds, and stake are locked at the moment the pick is generated, and nothing is edited after kick-off.
After settlement, every pick of every tier is counted in the public record below — free and paid, wins and losses. The headline stats and monthly + per-league breakdowns include all settled picks; the most recent are listed individually under “Recent picks”, and the full settled record is available as a CSV download above. The all-tier transparency posture means the paid record can't be cherry-picked behind the paywall.
Where the odds and results come from
At pick time, we scan five UK and exchange bookmakers (Bet365, Betfair Exchange, 888sport, Coral, and Paddy Power) and log the best decimal odds available across the panel. That price is what gets recorded with the pick.
We also snapshot the closing line where available (5 to 20 minutes before kick-off, across the same panel). Coverage is partial. Closing odds appear on individual settled-pick pages as a price reference. We don't pitch closing-line beat rate as performance; the numbers above are what's tracked.
Final results are reconciled against the official match outcome from our odds feed.
Who's behind this
Spectral is operated by Metric and Motive Ltd, a UK limited company (Companies House CRN 15568511, ICO reference ZC116934). The director and registered address are public on the Companies House register — that's who's accountable for the record on this page.
How the headline numbers are calculated
Stakes are sized using Kelly fractions, not flat units. A pick at higher edge and confidence carries a larger stake than one at the threshold; a low-tier pick carries a small fractional stake or none. This means our P&L can't be reverse-engineered from win count alone.
The numbers above are calculated as:
- P&L = sum across settled bets of (bookmaker odds − 1) × stake on wins, minus stake on losses. Reported in points.
- Win rate = wins / settled bets.
- Yield= P&L / total staked, expressed as a percentage.
- Settled bets are bets with a final outcome (won, lost, void, or push). Pending picks aren't included in the totals.
We publish the formula because flat-stake yield numbers and Kelly-stake yield numbers aren't directly comparable. Knowing which one you're reading matters.