Serie A

Italy

Spectral's statistical model covers Serie A corners markets, flagging value bets where the model's implied probability disagrees with bookmaker odds. Every pick is timestamped before kick-off and, once settled, counted in the track record below — free and paid, wins and losses. Nothing retrofitted, nothing cherry-picked.

Monitoring Serie A since February 2026 · 149 settled bets on record · +7.3% yield

Upcoming fixtures

No fixtures scheduled in the next 14 days.

Track record

Picks tracked

149

Win rate

52.3%

Yield

+7.3%

P&L (units)

+0.34

On Serie A. Full history below.

Typical corner market for Serie A

Computed from Spectral's own pipeline — the typical lines our model faces in Serie A, the match totals it predicts, and the edge profile of the picks it flags.

Median corner line

9.5

flagged picks

Avg predicted total

10.2

all modelled matches

Picks per matchday

last 30 days

Median edge

19.4%

flagged picks

How we model Serie A

Corners prediction uses a Poisson regression trained separately for Serie A. Every league has its own tempo, refereeing style, and variance profile, so a model calibrated on one doesn't transfer cleanly to another — we retrain per-league and recalibrate as new matches settle.

Once the model produces a probability for each corners line, we compare it against live bookmaker odds. Where the implied probability is meaningfully lower than ours (the edge), we flag a value bet. Pick sizing follows a Kelly fraction scaled by our confidence tier, capped for bankroll safety.

The full write-up — features, calibration method, overdispersion handling, and league-specific bias correction — lives on the methodology page. Historical accuracy for every league Spectral covers is tracked publicly on /track-record.

Get Serie A picks as they go live

Spectral subscribers receive value picks with recommended stake sizing before each matchday.

See pricing