Upcoming fixtures
Spectral has flagged 1 of the next 1 League One matches with a value pick (medium confidence).
- Bradford CityvsBolton WanderersLeague One · Thu 14 May · 20:00
Pick details (direction, line, odds, edge, and confidence) are available to Spectral subscribers.
Track record
Picks tracked
97
Win rate
49.5%
Yield
+1.6%
P&L (units)
+0.04
On League One. Full history below.
Recent results
Last 13 settled League One fixtures — verdicts shown where Spectral flagged a value pick.
- Stockport CountyvsStevenageWed 13 May · 20:00Over 11.5 corners +195.4% edge @ 4.50 · medium confidenceWon
- Exeter CityvsBradford CitySat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +44.0% edge @ 2.88 · medium confidenceWon
- Northampton TownvsPlymouth ArgyleSat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +37.5% edge @ 2.75 · medium confidenceLost
- BarnsleyvsStockport CountySat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +65.0% edge @ 3.30 · medium confidenceWon
- Leyton OrientvsBurton AlbionSat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +65.0% edge @ 3.30 · medium confidenceLost
- Bolton WanderersvsLuton TownSat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +44.0% edge @ 2.88 · medium confidenceLost
- Port ValevsLincoln CitySat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +65.0% edge @ 3.30 · medium confidenceLost
- AFC WimbledonvsHuddersfield TownSat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +50.0% edge @ 3.00 · medium confidenceLost
- Wycombe WanderersvsRotherham UnitedSat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +80.0% edge @ 3.60 · medium confidenceWon
- StevenagevsWigan AthleticSat 2 May · 15:00Over 10.5 corners +30.0% edge @ 2.60 · medium confidenceLost
- Peterborough UnitedvsDoncaster RoversSat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +27.5% edge @ 2.55 · medium confidenceLost
- Mansfield TownvsCardiff CitySat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +60.0% edge @ 3.20 · medium confidenceWon
- ReadingvsBlackpoolSat 2 May · 15:00Over 10.5 corners +12.5% edge @ 2.25 · medium confidenceWon
Typical corner market for League One
Computed from Spectral's own pipeline — the typical lines our model faces in League One, the match totals it predicts, and the edge profile of the picks it flags.
Median corner line
10.5
flagged picks
Avg predicted total
11.2
all modelled matches
Picks per matchday
8.4
last 30 days
Median edge
20.0%
flagged picks
How we model League One
Corners prediction uses a Poisson regression trained separately for League One. Every league has its own tempo, refereeing style, and variance profile, so a model calibrated on one doesn't transfer cleanly to another — we retrain per-league and recalibrate as new matches settle.
Once the model produces a probability for each corners line, we compare it against live bookmaker odds. Where the implied probability is meaningfully lower than ours (the edge), we flag a value bet. Pick sizing follows a Kelly fraction scaled by our confidence tier, capped for bankroll safety.
The full write-up — features, calibration method, overdispersion handling, and league-specific bias correction — lives on the methodology page. Historical accuracy for every league Spectral covers is tracked publicly on /track-record.