Upcoming fixtures
Spectral hasn't flagged a value pick in the next 13 La Liga matches yet.
- Valencia CFvsRayo VallecanoLa Liga · Thu 14 May · 18:00
- Girona FCvsReal SociedadLa Liga · Thu 14 May · 19:00
- Real MadridvsReal OviedoLa Liga · Thu 14 May · 20:30
- Levante UDvsRCD MallorcaLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- Real OviedovsDeportivo AlavésLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- Elche CFvsGetafe CFLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- Athletic Club BilbaovsCelta de VigoLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- FC BarcelonavsReal BetisLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- Atlético MadridvsGirona FCLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- CA OsasunavsRCD EspanyolLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- Rayo VallecanovsVillarrealLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- Sevilla FCvsReal MadridLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
- Real SociedadvsValencia CFLa Liga · Sun 17 May · 18:00
Track record
Picks tracked
144
Win rate
45.1%
Yield
+5.7%
P&L (units)
+0.16
On La Liga. Full history below.
Recent results
Last 10 settled La Liga fixtures — verdicts shown where Spectral flagged a value pick.
- Sevilla FCvsReal SociedadMon 4 May · 20:00Over 10.5 corners +25.0% edge @ 2.55 · medium confidenceLost
- RCD EspanyolvsReal MadridSun 3 May · 20:00Under 8.5 corners +36.0% edge @ 2.72 · medium confidenceLost
- Real BetisvsReal OviedoSun 3 May · 17:30Over 10.5 corners +41.2% edge @ 2.88 · medium confidenceLost
- Getafe CFvsRayo VallecanoSun 3 May · 15:15Over 11.5 corners +72.7% edge @ 3.80 · medium confidenceLost
- Celta de VigovsElche CFSun 3 May · 13:00Over 10.5 corners +76.5% edge @ 3.60 · medium confidenceLost
- CA OsasunavsFC BarcelonaSat 2 May · 20:00Over 11.5 corners +96.1% edge @ 4.00 · medium confidenceLost
- Deportivo AlavésvsAthletic Club BilbaoSat 2 May · 17:30Over 11.5 corners +61.8% edge @ 3.30 · medium confidenceLost
- Valencia CFvsAtlético MadridSat 2 May · 15:15Under 8.5 corners +29.0% edge @ 2.58 · medium confidenceWon
- VillarrealvsLevante UDSat 2 May · 13:00Over 11.5 corners +45.5% edge @ 3.20 · medium confidenceLost
- Girona FCvsRCD MallorcaFri 1 May · 20:00Over 11.5 corners +63.6% edge @ 3.60 · medium confidenceLost
Typical corner market for La Liga
Computed from Spectral's own pipeline — the typical lines our model faces in La Liga, the match totals it predicts, and the edge profile of the picks it flags.
Median corner line
9.5
flagged picks
Avg predicted total
9.7
all modelled matches
Picks per matchday
7.3
last 30 days
Median edge
19.6%
flagged picks
How we model La Liga
Corners prediction uses a Poisson regression trained separately for La Liga. Every league has its own tempo, refereeing style, and variance profile, so a model calibrated on one doesn't transfer cleanly to another — we retrain per-league and recalibrate as new matches settle.
Once the model produces a probability for each corners line, we compare it against live bookmaker odds. Where the implied probability is meaningfully lower than ours (the edge), we flag a value bet. Pick sizing follows a Kelly fraction scaled by our confidence tier, capped for bankroll safety.
The full write-up — features, calibration method, overdispersion handling, and league-specific bias correction — lives on the methodology page. Historical accuracy for every league Spectral covers is tracked publicly on /track-record.