Upcoming fixtures
Spectral has flagged 3 of the next 10 Premier League matches with value picks (all medium confidence).
- Aston VillavsLiverpoolPremier League · Fri 15 May · 20:00
Pick details (direction, line, odds, edge, and confidence) are available to Spectral subscribers.
- Manchester UnitedvsNottingham ForestPremier League · Sun 17 May · 12:30
Pick details (direction, line, odds, edge, and confidence) are available to Spectral subscribers.
- EvertonvsSunderlandPremier League · Sun 17 May · 15:00
- BrentfordvsCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 17 May · 15:00
- Leeds UnitedvsBrighton and Hove AlbionPremier League · Sun 17 May · 15:00
- Wolverhampton WanderersvsFulhamPremier League · Sun 17 May · 15:00
- Newcastle UnitedvsWest Ham UnitedPremier League · Sun 17 May · 17:30
- ArsenalvsBurnleyPremier League · Mon 18 May · 20:00
- BournemouthvsManchester CityPremier League · Tue 19 May · 19:30
- ChelseavsTottenham HotspurPremier League · Tue 19 May · 20:15
Pick details (direction, line, odds, edge, and confidence) are available to Spectral subscribers.
Track record
Picks tracked
118
Win rate
40.7%
Yield
+2.4%
P&L (units)
+0.04
On Premier League. Full history below.
Recent results
Last 20 settled Premier League fixtures — verdicts shown where Spectral flagged a value pick.
- Manchester CityvsCrystal PalaceWed 13 May · 20:00Over 11.5 corners +35.3% edge @ 2.40 · medium confidenceWon
- Tottenham HotspurvsLeeds UnitedMon 11 May · 20:00Over 11.5 corners +52.1% edge @ 2.75 · medium confidenceWon
- West Ham UnitedvsArsenalSun 10 May · 16:30Under 8.5 corners +66.0% edge @ 2.80 · medium confidenceWon
- Nottingham ForestvsNewcastle UnitedSun 10 May · 14:00Over 11.5 corners +45.0% edge @ 2.55 · medium confidenceLost
- BurnleyvsAston VillaSun 10 May · 14:00Under 8.5 corners +45.0% edge @ 2.55 · medium confidenceLost
- Crystal PalacevsEvertonSun 10 May · 14:00Over 11.5 corners +65.5% edge @ 3.70 · high confidenceWon
- Manchester CityvsBrentfordSat 9 May · 17:30Under 8.5 corners +41.7% edge @ 3.45 · high confidenceLost
- FulhamvsBournemouthSat 9 May · 15:00Under 8.5 corners +87.0% edge @ 3.35 · medium confidenceLost
- Brighton and Hove AlbionvsWolverhampton WanderersSat 9 May · 15:00Under 8.5 corners +50.6% edge @ 2.76 · medium confidenceWon
- SunderlandvsManchester UnitedSat 9 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +59.9% edge @ 3.60 · high confidenceWon
- LiverpoolvsChelseaSat 9 May · 12:30Under 8.5 corners +28.3% edge @ 3.20 · high confidenceWon
- EvertonvsManchester CityMon 4 May · 20:00Over 11.5 corners +11.5% edge @ 3.20 · medium confidenceWon
- ChelseavsNottingham ForestMon 4 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +11.5% edge @ 3.20 · medium confidenceLost
- Manchester UnitedvsLiverpoolSun 3 May · 15:30Under 9.5 corners +10.0% edge @ 2.20 · medium confidenceWon
- BournemouthvsCrystal PalaceSun 3 May · 14:00Over 10.5 corners +5.0% edge @ 2.10 · medium confidenceLost
- ArsenalvsFulhamSat 2 May · 17:30Under 8.5 corners +48.0% edge @ 2.96 · medium confidenceWon
- Wolverhampton WanderersvsSunderlandSat 2 May · 15:00Over 11.5 corners +25.4% edge @ 3.60 · high confidenceLost
- Newcastle UnitedvsBrighton and Hove AlbionSat 2 May · 15:00Over 10.5 corners +10.0% edge @ 2.20 · medium confidenceWon
- BrentfordvsWest Ham UnitedSat 2 May · 15:00Under 8.5 corners +60.0% edge @ 3.20 · medium confidenceWon
- Leeds UnitedvsBurnleyFri 1 May · 20:00Over 11.5 corners +65.0% edge @ 3.30 · high confidenceLost
Typical corner market for Premier League
Computed from Spectral's own pipeline — the typical lines our model faces in Premier League, the match totals it predicts, and the edge profile of the picks it flags.
Median corner line
10.5
flagged picks
Avg predicted total
10.5
all modelled matches
Picks per matchday
4.8
last 30 days
Median edge
17.3%
flagged picks
How we model Premier League
Corners prediction uses a Poisson regression trained separately for Premier League. Every league has its own tempo, refereeing style, and variance profile, so a model calibrated on one doesn't transfer cleanly to another — we retrain per-league and recalibrate as new matches settle.
Once the model produces a probability for each corners line, we compare it against live bookmaker odds. Where the implied probability is meaningfully lower than ours (the edge), we flag a value bet. Pick sizing follows a Kelly fraction scaled by our confidence tier, capped for bankroll safety.
The full write-up — features, calibration method, overdispersion handling, and league-specific bias correction — lives on the methodology page. Historical accuracy for every league Spectral covers is tracked publicly on /track-record.