Upcoming fixtures
Spectral hasn't flagged a value pick in the next 9 Bundesliga matches yet.
- Borussia DortmundvsWerder BremenBundesliga · Fri 9 Oct · 19:30
- HoffenheimvsHamburger SVBundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 14:30
- PaderbornvsStuttgartBundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 14:30
- Mainz 05vsBayer LeverkusenBundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 14:30
- AugsburgvsBayern MünchenBundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 14:30
- Union BerlinvsElversbergBundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 14:30
- RB LeipzigvsEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 17:30
- KölnvsBorussia M'gladbachBundesliga · Sun 11 Oct · 14:30
- FreiburgvsSchalke 04Bundesliga · Sun 11 Oct · 16:30
Track record
Picks tracked
73
Win rate
45.2%
Yield
+13.4%
P&L (units)
+0.19
On Bundesliga. Full history below.
Typical corner market for Bundesliga
Computed from Spectral's own pipeline — the typical lines our model faces in Bundesliga, the match totals it predicts, and the edge profile of the picks it flags.
Median corner line
8.5
flagged picks
Avg predicted total
9.7
all modelled matches
Picks per matchday
—
last 30 days
Median edge
12.0%
flagged picks
How we model Bundesliga
Corners prediction uses a Poisson regression trained separately for Bundesliga. Every league has its own tempo, refereeing style, and variance profile, so a model calibrated on one doesn't transfer cleanly to another — we retrain per-league and recalibrate as new matches settle.
Once the model produces a probability for each corners line, we compare it against live bookmaker odds. Where the implied probability is meaningfully lower than ours (the edge), we flag a value bet. Pick sizing follows a Kelly fraction scaled by our confidence tier, capped for bankroll safety.
The full write-up — features, calibration method, overdispersion handling, and league-specific bias correction — lives on the methodology page. Historical accuracy for every league Spectral covers is tracked publicly on /track-record.