Roma vs Genoa

The model places total corners at 9.21, against a Serie A baseline of 9.9. That sits below the norm. Genoa's away match total average sits at 6.5, with recent games returning 7 and 6 corners, and that consistent low-volume away profile provides the main pull keeping this projection below what the league context alone would produce.

Roma's home corner average is 8.7. Their last three recorded home corner totals read 6, 15, and 5, a range that reflects a genuinely wide distribution rather than any settled tendency at the Olimpico. The 15 is a real data point and not something to smooth away; it sits alongside two home games where Roma's volume was notably low. That spread is the core driver of the medium-confidence rating here, and it's why the model doesn't carry the precision a tighter sample would afford.

Medium confidence reflects the direct conflict between Genoa's suppressive away tendencies and Roma's capacity to swing sharply in either direction at home. The model doesn't resolve that conflict cleanly. Keep positions controlled. High confidence tier outputs carry a 56.1% win rate in Serie A, and medium confidence is a distinct risk category that requires its own sizing discipline rather than a scaled approximation of how you'd approach a stronger read.

In Serie A, Spectral's medium-confidence tier has settled 58 picks with a 44.8% win rate.