Upcoming fixtures
Spectral hasn't flagged a value pick in the next 18 Primeira Liga matches yet.
- Moreirense FCvsAVSPrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 15:30
- PortovsSanta ClaraPrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 15:30
- FC AroucavsCD TondelaPrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 18:00
- Sporting BragavsEstrela AmadoraPrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 18:00
- CD NacionalvsVitória GuimarãesPrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 18:00
- Casa PiavsRio Ave FCPrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 18:00
- GD Estoril PraiavsBenficaPrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 20:30
- Sporting CPvsGil VicentePrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 20:30
- FamalicãovsAlvercaPrimeira Liga · Sat 16 May · 20:30
- GD Estoril PraiavsBenficaPrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
- Moreirense FCvsAVSPrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
- FC AroucavsCD TondelaPrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
- Sporting CPvsGil VicentePrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
- Sporting BragavsEstrela AmadoraPrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
- CD NacionalvsVitória GuimarãesPrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
- PortovsSanta ClaraPrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
- Casa PiavsRio Ave FCPrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
- FamalicãovsAlvercaPrimeira Liga · Sun 17 May · 01:00
Track record
Picks tracked
4
Win rate
25.0%
Yield
-47.8%
P&L (units)
-0.03
On Primeira Liga. Full history below.
Typical corner market for Primeira Liga
Building a statistical profile for Primeira Liga — check back as the sample grows.
How we model Primeira Liga
Corners prediction uses a Poisson regression trained separately for Primeira Liga. Every league has its own tempo, refereeing style, and variance profile, so a model calibrated on one doesn't transfer cleanly to another — we retrain per-league and recalibrate as new matches settle.
Once the model produces a probability for each corners line, we compare it against live bookmaker odds. Where the implied probability is meaningfully lower than ours (the edge), we flag a value bet. Pick sizing follows a Kelly fraction scaled by our confidence tier, capped for bankroll safety.
The full write-up — features, calibration method, overdispersion handling, and league-specific bias correction — lives on the methodology page. Historical accuracy for every league Spectral covers is tracked publicly on /track-record.