Upcoming fixtures
Spectral hasn't flagged a value pick in the next 2 Brazilian Serie A matches yet.
- São PaulovsSantosBrazilian Serie A · Sat 3 Oct · 00:00
- Atlético MineirovsBragantinoBrazilian Serie A · Sat 3 Oct · 22:30
Track record
Picks tracked
13
Win rate
46.2%
Yield
-27.1%
P&L (units)
-0.02
On Brazilian Serie A. Full history below.
Recent results
Last 3 settled Brazilian Serie A fixtures — verdicts shown where Spectral flagged a value pick.
- RemovsSantosSat 19 Sept · 22:30Under 9.5 corners +9.0% edge @ 1.83 · medium confidenceWon
- BotafogovsGrêmioWed 16 Sept · 23:30Over 9.5 corners +20.4% edge @ 1.73 · medium confidenceLost
- BahiavsRemoMon 14 Sept · 00:00Over 12.5 corners +31.8% edge @ 3.70 · medium confidenceWon
Typical corner market for Brazilian Serie A
Computed from Spectral's own pipeline — the typical lines our model faces in Brazilian Serie A, the match totals it predicts, and the edge profile of the picks it flags.
Median corner line
9.5
flagged picks
Avg predicted total
10.0
all modelled matches
Picks per matchday
2.0
last 30 days
Median edge
21.0%
flagged picks
How we model Brazilian Serie A
Corners prediction uses a Poisson regression trained separately for Brazilian Serie A. Every league has its own tempo, refereeing style, and variance profile, so a model calibrated on one doesn't transfer cleanly to another — we retrain per-league and recalibrate as new matches settle.
Once the model produces a probability for each corners line, we compare it against live bookmaker odds. Where the implied probability is meaningfully lower than ours (the edge), we flag a value bet. Pick sizing follows a Kelly fraction scaled by our confidence tier, capped for bankroll safety.
The full write-up — features, calibration method, overdispersion handling, and league-specific bias correction — lives on the methodology page. Historical accuracy for every league Spectral covers is tracked publicly on /track-record.