Häcken vs IFK Göteborg

The model outputs 10.62. That figure sits against a SE league baseline of 10.6, a separation small enough to register as near-baseline output, and when a projected total closes that tight to the league average the output is showing minimal deviation from the SE norm, which is precisely why medium confidence is the correct classification here.

Averages tell a partial story. Häcken's last five match totals, 11, 9, 11, 14, 8, land at 10.9, while IFK Göteborg's sequence of 11, 14, 7, 15, 14 averages 11.6 but spans from 7 to 15. That spread is the central uncertainty: a 7-corner game and a 15-corner game inside five matches represents a wide distribution, and the projection is weighted across those outcome paths rather than resolving cleanly toward one side.

The two averages in combination produce a predicted total that barely clears the baseline. That's structural. Häcken's 10.9 is only modestly above the league figure of 10.6, so neither team input provides strong upward pressure, and the model output reflects a fixture where both sides sit close to the SE norm.

Stake sizing should track the confidence tier. Medium confidence means proportional exposure. A projected total this close to the SE baseline of 10.6 doesn't provide enough separation from the norm to justify anything beyond measured sizing, and that principle holds regardless of outcome.

Spectral's medium-confidence record in SE stands at 69.2% from 13 settled picks.