Djurgården vs Degerfors

The model's predicted total of 10.31 sits just below the SE league baseline of 10.6. That gap is thin. Djurgården's last five home corner totals read 6, 7, 11, 4, 5, a sequence with high internal variance that makes a firm read on their output difficult, and their match average of 8.6 sits well below the league norm. The range from 4 to 11 across five matches doesn't support a high-confidence read on this total.

Degerfors carry a higher match average at 9.5, and their last five totals run 6, 9, 12, 14, 14. That sequence matters. The clustering around 12, 14, and 14 pulls the away distribution toward the upper range, and the model prices in that tail, which puts the output at medium rather than advancing to high. The contrast between Degerfors' 9.5 average and Djurgården's 8.6 produces a split picture rather than a coherent signal.

The central projection sits below baseline. The working is thin. When predicted total and league average are this close together, and when the away data spans from 6 to 14 across five matches, the picture doesn't offer clean separation. Medium confidence is a direct reflection of the model's output given the spread of inputs, and position sizing should match that assessment rather than overstate the signal.

Spectral's medium-confidence record in SE: 13 settled, 69.2% win rate.